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Gray skies and rain


When the skies are gray there is the benefit of a greater chance of rain, and dark skies makes you appreciate blue skies and sunshine. Having come from Australia and then spending the last 27 years in California I have become complacent towards clear, dry, blue skies. It is only when something is missing do you genuinely appreciate it. However, the rain in our new homeland is no surprise to us, it is indeed one of the reasons we moved here.

We know that climate change data has been for many years rigorously, repeatedly, observed, and measured. This gives us confidence in the predictions made by climate change research. We are so confident in the results of this research (that global temperature will continue to increase) that we went through all the hardships of selling our home and moving north to a colder and wetter climate. We estimate that this move will give us another 30 years of relatively acceptable weather; after this we will not be concerned with the Earth, the peoples, or creatures on it. A harsh idea I know, but in this I am certain. We can be confident of only one thing, which is that blackness waits to engulf us all.


However, weather is distinct from climate and much more difficult to predict with confidence. This became distinctly clear as the vast forests of the Northwest coast of the United States of America burst into flames, just as we began our move. The take-away from this is that climate predictions are reliable, but weather predictions are not. We know there is a high probability that global temperatures will increase during the rest of our lives. We do not have the same level of confidence about exactly what the local weather conditions will be at any time.

Our future is unknow, we are like everyone else in this respect. We have no special superpower. And this lack of our ability to accurately predict the future is a common inadequacy of all humans. All anyone can do to protect from future events is to mitigate risks and plan for contingencies. There is no better practice than these to guard against uncertainty. In fact, you can be sure of only one thing, which is when someone tells you with confidence what the future holds, they are either delusional or lying.

Effects of climate change

The repeatedly observed and measured climate data gives us confidence that global temperatures will continue to increase, and local weather events will become harsher and more extreme during the remainder of our lives. Let us hope our mitigation plan of moving to a cooler and wetter climate pays off. After all, all anyone can ask for is a more secure and trouble-free existence. Do you agree?


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